by Robyn Bolton | May 3, 2023 | Innovation
When asked to describe his test for determining what is and isn’t hard-core pornography, Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart responded, “I know it when I see it.”
In that sense, pornography and failure may have a lot in common.
By accident, I spent the month of April thinking, writing (here and here), and talking about failure. Then, in the last week, a bank failed, two top-seeded sports teams were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, and the New York Times wrote a feature article on the new practice of celebrating college rejections.
Failure was everywhere.
But was it?
SVB, Signature, First Republic – Failure.
On Monday, First Republic Bank became the third bank this year to fail. Like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, it met the definition of bank failure according to the FDIC – “the closing of a bank by a federal or state banking regulatory agency…[because] it is unable to meet its obligations to depositors and others.”
It doesn’t matter if the bank is a central part of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, is on the cutting edge of new financial instruments like cryptocurrency, or caters to high-net-worth individuals. When you give money to a bank, an institution created to keep your money safe, and it cannot give it back because it spent it, that is a failure.
Milwaukee Bucks – Failure?
Even if you’re not an NBA fan, you probably heard about the Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo’s interview after the team’s playoff elimination.
Here’s some quick context – the Milwaukee Bucks had the best regular season record and were widely favored to win the title. Instead, they lost in Game 5 to the 8th-ranked Miami Heat. After the game, a reporter asked Antetokounmpo if he viewed the season as a failure, to which Antetokounmpo responded:
“It’s not a failure; it’s steps to success. There’s always steps to it. Michael Jordan played 15 years, won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That’s what you’re telling me? It’s a wrong question; there’s no failure in sports.”
If you haven’t seen the whole clip, it’s worth your time.
The media went nuts, fawning over Antetokounmpo’s thoughtful and philosophical response, the epitome of an athlete who gives his all and is graceful in defeat. One writer even went so far as to proclaim that “Antetokounmpo showed us another way to live.”
But not everyone shared that perspective. In the post-game show, four-time NBA champion Shaquille O’Neal was one of the first to disagree,
“I played 19 seasons and failed 15 seasons; when I didn’t win it, it was a failure, especially when I made it to the finals versus the (Houston) Rockets and lost, made it to the finals for the fourth time with the (Los Angeles) Lakers and lost, it was definitely a failure.
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I can’t tell everybody how they think, but when I watch guys before me, the Birds, the Kareems, and you know that’s how they thought, so that’s how I was raised.
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He’s not a failure as a player, but is it a failure as a season? I would say yes, but I also like his explanation. I can understand and respect his explanation, but for me, when we didn’t win it, it was always my fault, and it was definitely a failure.”
Did Antetokounmpo fail? Are the Bucks a failure? Was their season a failure?
It depends.
College Rejections – Not Failure
Failure is rarely fun, but it can be absolutely devastating if all you’ve ever known is success. Just ask anyone who has ever applied to college. Whether it was slowly opening the mailbox to see if it contained a big envelope or a small one or hesitatingly opening an email to get the verdict, the college application process is often the first time people get a taste of failure.
Now, they also get a taste of ice cream.
Around the world, schools are using the college application and rejection process as a learning experience:
- LA: Seniors gather to feed their rejection letters into a shredder and receive an ice cream sundae. The student with the most rejections receives a Barnes & Noble gift card. “You have to learn that you will survive and there is a rainbow at the other end,” said one of the college counselors.
- NYC: After adding their rejection letters to the Rejection Wall, students pull a prize from the rejection grab bag and enjoy encouraging notes from classmates like, “You’re too sexy for Vassar” or “You’ve been rejected, you’re too smart. Love, NYU.”
- Sydney, Australia: a professor started a Rejection Wall of Fame after receiving two rejections in one day, sharing his disappointment with a colleague only to hear how reassured they were that they weren’t alone.
“I know it when I see it” – Failure
I still don’t know a single definition or objective test for failure.
But I do know that using “I’ll know it when I see it” to define failure is a failure.
It’s a failure because we can define success and failure before we start.
Sometimes failure is easy to define – if you are a bank and I give you money, and you don’t give it back to me with interest, that is a failure. Sometimes the definition is subjective and even personal, like defining failure as not making the playoffs vs. not winning a championship, or not applying to a school vs. not getting in.
Maybe failure is everywhere. Maybe it’s not.
I’ll know it when I define it.
by Robyn Bolton | Apr 27, 2023 | Articles
by Robyn Bolton | Apr 27, 2023 | Innovation, Leadership
“Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly”
It’s a meme and my new favorite euphemism for getting dumped/fired (as in, “There was a rapid unscheduled disassembly of our relationship.” Thank you, social media, for this gem)
It’s also spurred dozens of conversations with corporate leaders and innovation teams about the importance of defining success, the purpose of experiments, and the necessity of risk.
Define Success so You Can Identify Failure
The dictionary defines “fail (verb)” as “be unsuccessful in achieving one’s goal.”
But, as I wrote last week, using your definition of success to classify something as a failure assumes you defined success correctly.
Space X didn’t define success as carrying “two astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface of the moon,” Starship’s ultimate goal.
It defined success in 3 ways:
- Big picture (but a bit general) – Validating “whether the design of the rocket system is sound.”
- Ideal outcome – “Reach an altitude of 150 miles before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii 90 minutes [after take-off].”
- Base Case – Fly far enough from the launchpad and long enough to generate “data for engineers to understand how the vehicle performed.”
By defining multiple and internally consistent types of success, SpaceX inspired hope for the best and set realistic expectations. And, if the rocket exploded on the launchpad? That would be a failure.
Know What You Need to Learn so You Know What You Need to Do
This was not the first experiment SpaceX ran to determine “whether the design of the rocket system was sound.” But this probably was the only experiment they could run to get the data they needed at this point in the process.
You can learn a lot from lab tests, paper prototypes, and small-scale experiments. But you can’t learn everything. Sometimes, you need to test your idea in the wild.
And this scares the heck out of executives.
As the NYT pointed out, “Big NASA programs like the Space Launch System…are generally not afforded the same luxury of explode-as-you-learn. There tends to be much more testing and analysis on the ground — which slows development and increases costs — to avoid embarrassing public failures.”
Avoiding public failure is good. Not learning because you’re afraid of public failure is not.
So be clear about what you need to learn, all the ways you could learn it, and the trade-offs of private, small-scale experiments vs. large-scale public ones. Then make your choice and move forward.
Have Courage. Take a Risk
“Every great achievement throughout history has demanded some level of calculated risk, because with great risk comes great reward,” Bill Nelson, NASA Administrator.
“Great risk” is scary. Companies do not want to take great risks (see embarrassing public failure).
“Calculated risk” is smart. It’s necessary. It’s also a bit scary.
You take a risk to gain something – knowledge, money, recognition. But you also create the opportunity to lose something. And since the psychological pain of losing is twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining, we tend to avoid risk.
But to make progress, you must take a risk. To take a risk, you need courage.
And courage is a skill you can learn and build. For many of us, it starts with remembering that courage is not the absence of fear. It is the choice to take action despite fear.
When faced with a risk, face it. Acknowledge it and how you feel. Assess it by determining the best, worst, and most likely scenarios. Ask for input and see it from other people’s perspectives. Then make your choice and move forward.
How to know when you’ve successfully failed
Two quotes perfectly sum up what failure en route to success is:
“It may look that way to some people, but it’s not a failure. It’s a learning experience.”- Daniel Dumbacher, executive director of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and a former high-level NASA official.
“Would it have been awesome if it didn’t explode? Yeah. But it was still awesome.” – Launch viewer Lauren Posey, 34.
by Robyn Bolton | Apr 19, 2023 | Innovation, Leadership
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about my hatred of failure while acknowledging that there are things I hate more (inertia, blind allegiance to the status quo, unwillingness to try) that motivate me to risk it.
In response, I received this email from my friend and former colleague Daymara, now the Founder & CEO of Rockin’ Baker in Fayetteville, AR (shared here with her permission)
I’m the opposite. I love failing! That’s when I learn the most, that I question what and how I could better, question more and more. It triggers my brain to look back, re-evaluate, assess and spring forward. I wouldn’t be here today if I had not risked. I don’t think anyone starts anything thinking when they’d fail. But some of us aren’t afraid or hate it. I wouldn’t be here if I hate failing, wouldn’t have left my country looking for a safer place, wouldn’t have launched RBI because I didn’t have any entrepreneurial experience not even in the hospitality industry, wouldn’t have switched to focus on neurodiversity and so much more.
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Because I came to the US, I got to meet you. Yes, I failed at seeing the signs & lost over 60% of my savings just 2 weeks before leaving Venezuela. I could’ve decided to stay because maybe it was going to be harder and the risk of failing in a country I didn’t know higher. I had a plan. If it didn’t work, come back home & start all over again.
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I started RBI understanding that I could fail. I told myself, if I did, at least I would have an answer. Yes, I’m failing terribly at making this social enterprise work. Yet, I’ve gained so much knowledge about humanity, our differences, the unfairness that neurodivergents have to live daily, running a social enterprise and so much more. If I had hated failing, I wouldn’t be sharing my experience with other entrepreneurs so they don’t make the same mistakes I made. I wouldn’t be advocating for more equitable places for all, including women.
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Failing feeds me to do better, to ask more questions, to explore more, to lead me to become better. I don’t love failing, I welcome it.
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My first thought was, “Wow, this is so healthy! I wish more people felt and acted this way!”
My second thought was, “I wouldn’t apply the word ‘fail’ to any of these situations. You’re trying, learning, changing, and trying again.:
Just because you don’t get the expected outcome the first time doesn’t mean you failed.
Or does it?
What the Dictionary Says
According to Oxford Languages, “fail” (verb) means
- Be unsuccessful in achieving one’s goal, “he failed in his attempt to secure election.”
- Neglect to do something, “the firm failed to give adequate risk warnings.”
- Break down; cease to work well, “a truck whose brakes had failed.”
True but contextual:
- If success is defined as launching a new product, but customer feedback proves there’s no demand or willingness to pay, is shutting it down a failure?
- If you neglect something that isn’t important or doesn’t have significant ramifications, like not eating breakfast, did you fail or simply forget, run out of time, or make a mistake?
- If something works but not well, like an expense reporting system, is it a failure or just burdensome, a pain, or a necessary evil?
Also, incomplete.
What People Say
“Fail” has so many definitions and meanings in Daymara’s telling of her story. In addition to some of the dictionary’s definitions, she also uses “Fail” to mean:
- Take smart risks, “I could’ve decided to stay because maybe it was going to be harder and the risk of failing in a country I didn’t know higher. I had a plan. If it didn’t work, come back home & start all over again.”
- Get new information to facilitate learning,
- “I’m the opposite. I love failing! That’s when I learn the most, that I question what and how I could better, question more and more. It triggers my brain to look back, re-evaluate, assess and spring forward.”
- I started RBI understanding that I could fail. I told myself, if I did, at least I would have an answer.
- Adapt and change based on learning, “wouldn’t have switched to focus on neurodiversity”
- Grow, improve, evolve, “Failing feeds me to do better, to ask more questions, to explore more, to lead me to become better. I don’t love failing, I welcome it.”
What Do You Say?
Like “Innovation,” “Failure” is a word we all use A LOT that no longer has a common definition. In the dictionary, failure is bad and to be avoided. To Daymara and scores of entrepreneurs and innovators, failure is wonderful and welcome.
Progress, either towards or away from failure, requires us to define “Failure” for ourselves and our work and agree on a definition with our teammates.
So, tell me:
- What is failure to you?
- To your team?
- To your boss?
by Robyn Bolton | Apr 11, 2023 | Innovation, Leadership
To Cede, or to Seed, that is the question:
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of a down quarter or year,
Or to take arms against the Tyranny of Now
And by opposing overcome it.
To Cede – to withdraw,
Spend no more; and by stopping to say we end
The innovation and the thousand natural insights
That pave the way: ‘tis a necessity
Stoically to be endured
To Seed, to spend;
To spend perchance to grow – ay there’s the rub:
For in that spending on innovation what revenue may come,
When we have emerged from this uncertainty,
Must give us hope – there’s the advantage
That makes success of such a business
- Hamlet, if he were a senior executive making budget decisions during periods of uncertainty (and with my deepest apologies to Shakespeare)
The Question
To cede or seed is the question facing so many executives right now.
The same question faced executives in 2001, 2008, and 2020.
And an answer is required.
But what’s the right answer?
As a friend likes to say, “It’s contextual.”
To Cede
Cede is the most common answer for two main reasons: (1) executives feel they don’t have a choice because super-senior executives mandated an x% budget, or (2) executives need to boost results by allocating resources to things with “guaranteed” ROI.
Whatever the reason, innovation is a luxury the business can no longer afford, and the core business is a necessity to be supported at all costs. As a result, rather than scaling back a little in a lot of places, managers believe it is safer and easier to eliminate innovation entirely and maintain, or even increase, resources for operations.
Sometimes, this is also the right answer.
If the business is hemorrhaging cash, its value is plummeting, and people are questioning whether or not it can stay in business, then Cede is the right answer. There’s no sense in investing for success in one, three, or five years if there’s little chance of seeing the next day, week, or month.
But odds are, you’re not in that situation.
To Seed
The Dot-com bubble. The Great Recession. COVID-19 recession.
The 21st century has allowed us to study the impact of different decisions during and after economic crises.
And when it comes to innovation, evidence shows that companies that continue to invest in innovation during times of economic uncertainty outperformed the market by 10% during the crisis and by up to 30% in the five years immediately following the crisis.
But not all companies.
A study of 4,700 companies during three global recessions (1980 – 1982, 1990 – 1991, and 2000 – 2002) found that “Businesses that boldly invest more than their rivals during a recession… enjoy only a 26% chance of becoming leaders after a downturn.” However,
“Companies that master the delicate balance between cutting costs to survive today and investing to grow tomorrow do well after a recession. Within this group, a subset that deploys a specific combination of defensive and offensive moves has the highest probability—37%—of breaking away from the pack. These companies reduce costs selectively by focusing more on operational efficiency than their rivals do, even as they invest relatively comprehensively in the future by spending on marketing, R&D, and new assets. Their multipronged strategy…is the best antidote to a recession.”
The takeaway – Seed, don’t splurge.
The Answer (sort of)
It’s easy, and incredibly biased, of me to assert that there is one and only one right answer. That the executive who cuts innovation spending (along with travel budgets and probably a few other things) is woefully short-sighted and dooming his business to a never-ending cycle of cutting back, losing ground, and racing to catch up, only to cut again when the next downturn hits.
It’s also very unfair because I’d be using history and theory to judge an executive grappling with the reality of organizational mandates, limited resources, and very real responsibilities.
The right answer is the one you can live with.
Ceding makes sense in the short term, but it’s a liability in the medium and long term.
Seeding pays off in 2-3 years, but you’ll endure skepticism and risk your bonus or job while waiting.
Research says Seeding is the right answer.
Reality often dictates Ceding.
The choice is yours.
Just remember that, like Hamlet, you live (or die) with the results.
